the UK is on a fiscal tightrope. the steadier the rope, the more room to move forward.
The Tightrope Score runs from 0 to 100: higher means more room to move, lower means the rope is closer to giving way. Markets, fiscal headroom, the labour force, and growth delivery each pull on the rope; the score is the geometric mean of those four pillars. Every number sourced and open.
how the score has moved
90-day headline score with the events that drove it. Hover or tab through the markers for context — every event is pinned to its primary source.
Four pillars, one score
Geometric mean · weights on each tileWhat moved today
Updated every five minutes during UK market hours. Hover any tile for the full source and timestamp.
Market stability
The daily market read on UK constraint: long gilts, sterling, the rate path, mid-cap equities, and the energy input.
Gilt curve anchors
10y and 20y zero-coupon yields, breakeven inflation, and risk assets.
Market stability trajectory
30-day pillar score. Higher = more market stability; lower = more constraint from markets.
Scored 30 of 30 days.
Why this matters
Long gilt yields are the price the Government pays to borrow. When they rise, debt service bills rise with them, the Chancellor's fiscal headroom shrinks, and sterling often weakens — compounding inflation via imports. The 20-year zero-coupon yield is the clearest long-duration read on the BoE curve, and it is the one that moves first when policy credibility is in question.
Fiscal room
How much room the Chancellor actually has against her own stability rule, and how that has moved between forecast rounds.
OBR forecast headroom for FY 2029/30, by vintage
Editorial ↗£ billion, surplus against the stability rule at the FY 2029/30 target year. Each dot is a separate OBR forecast round.
The DMOUK Debt Management Office — the executive agency that issues gilts (UK government bonds) on behalf of HM Treasury. Its 'gilt stack' is the planned mix of new bonds it will sell over the financial year, by maturity bucket and type. gilt stack (forecast)
Editorial ↗Planned 2026/27 issuance · £252.1bn total · GDP = £2,709bn (OBR Spring Forecast 2026)
| Nominal | % of GDP | |
|---|---|---|
| Total issuance | £252.1bn | 9.3% |
| Short conventional | £72.1bn | 2.7% |
| Medium conventional | £81.8bn | 3.0% |
| Long conventional | £74.7bn | 2.8% |
| Index-linked | £23.4bn | 0.9% |
Labour & living-standards resilience
Health-related inactivity, labour-market tightness, real wages and — the line households feel — mortgage rates.
Real regular pay growth (YoY)
Editorial ↗CPIH-adjusted. Positive values = real wages growing.
Vacancies per unemployed person
Editorial ↗Rolling quarterly ratio — falling = more slack appearing in the labour market. The Tightrope methodology treats this as a worsening indicator and inverts it before it reaches the high-good pillar score.
Mortgage translator
Editorial ↗What the 2-year fixed-rate move means on a £250,000, 25-year repayment mortgage.
Change vs. the rate at the Spring Statement 2025 (4.54% → 5.14%). Payment: £1,482 vs. £1,395.
This is the line you will see quoted in the press. The rate series is the Bank of England's IUMBV34 monthly effective rate on new 2-year fixes at 75% LTV · latest reading 30 Apr 2026.
Inactivity rate vs. health-related count
Editorial ↗Annual averages, 16-64. Left axis: rate (%). Right axis: health-related inactive (millions).
Is the Government hitting their targets?
The Government's own stated commitments, tracked against public milestones. Green for on track, amber for slipping, red for missed, blue for shipped. Every status is sourced.
The events that moved the rope
OBR forecast rounds, BoE decisions, Budget set-pieces, and the geopolitical shocks that landed in between. Pinned to primary sources.
March CPI rises to 3.3%, BoE path under scrutiny
ONS releases March 2026 CPI inflation data showing headline CPI at 3.3% YoY (up from ~3.0% in February), driven by lingering energy and petrol price effects from the Iran conflict period. Markets price in a more cautious BoE path ahead of the 30 April MPC decision; gilt yields stabilise but remain elevated.
ONS Consumer price inflation ↗Resolution Foundation: conflict could erase £16bn of headroom
Resolution Foundation warns that a prolonged or severe Middle East conflict could erase up to £16bn of the Chancellor's current-budget headroom — almost three-quarters of the March OBR cushion — via higher energy prices, inflation, and debt interest. Report highlights fiscal vulnerability even under the current ceasefire.
Resolution Foundation ↗Sterling recovers to pre-war levels
GBP/USD back near 1.2400 as the Iran ceasefire holds and Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises. Oil and UK gas sell off sharply. BoE officials nonetheless stress inflation control remains the priority.
Reuters, Bank of England ↗Reeves rules out tax rises or borrowing for extra defence spending
Chancellor tells reporters additional defence outlays up to the 3.5% commitment will not be funded by more borrowing or higher taxes, pointing the pressure back at welfare and departmental restraint.
Reuters, HM Treasury ↗US, Israel and Iran agree conditional ceasefire
US, Israel and Iran agree a conditional two-week ceasefire; UK Foreign Secretary and international finance ministers welcome the de-escalation, citing restored Strait of Hormuz shipping and falling oil and gas prices. Initial market relief begins, setting the stage for sterling's recovery to pre-war levels by 17 April.
Foreign Office / gov.uk ↗OBR Spring Forecast: headroom 23.6bn, GDP cut to 1.1%
Current-budget headroom ticks up from 22.0bn at the November Budget. 2026 growth downgraded from 1.4%. IMF subsequently cuts to 0.8% citing the Middle East shock.
OBR, IMF ↗Iran conflict begins, energy shock lands
UK natural gas front-month jumps 38% inside a week. 30y gilts break 5.5% for the first time since 1998. Tightrope Score moves from 51 to 68 over four trading sessions.
ICE, Bank of England ↗BoE cuts Bank Rate to 3.75%
7-2 vote. MPC minutes emphasise inflation persistence; markets trim the 2026 cut path.
Bank of England MPC ↗Planning & Infrastructure Bill receives Royal Assent
Landmark reform of the planning system passes both houses with cross-bench support; commencement orders expected by late spring.
Planning & Infrastructure Act 2025 ↗Autumn Budget: 22.0bn headroom restored
Combination of receipts upgrade and tighter departmental envelope rebuilds the cushion after the March 2025 crunch (9.9bn).
HM Treasury, OBR ↗BoE holds Bank Rate at 4.00%, starts reducing gilt sales
QT pace pared back; MPC cites technical market conditions rather than policy loosening.
Bank of England MPC ↗Industrial Strategy white paper published
Sets out eight priority sectors and the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme framework.
DBT ↗OBR Spring Forecast: headroom collapses to 9.9bn
The crunch. Gilts reprice and the Chancellor promises restoration in the next fiscal event.
OBR ↗First Reeves Budget: 22.0bn headroom set
Opening fiscal envelope. Employer NICs rise, capital budgets reprioritised toward infrastructure.
HM Treasury ↗what if…?
Drag any of the 14 headline drivers — gilt yields, pay growth, headroom, housing — and watch the score, pillars, and band recompute through the same empirical-CDF baseline the live methodology uses. Counterfactual, not a forecast.
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