Provenance

Sources

Every figure on this site traces to a public, free-to-access primary source. We do not use paywalled publications as primary evidence. Where a feed is scraped rather than pulled from a stable API, we publish the endpoint and the parse script for review.

Bank of England -- Statistical Database (gilt yields)

Endpointhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/_iadb-fromshowcolumns.asp

Used for: 10-year gilt yield20-year gilt yield5y breakeven inflation

Bank of England -- Exchange rates

Used for: GBP / USDGBP trade-weighted index

Bank of England -- 5y breakeven inflation

Endpointhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/_iadb-fromshowcolumns.asp

Derived from the IADB CSV endpoint (IUDSNZC/IUDSIZC). Emits 5y breakeven inflation (nominal minus real).

Contextual reference only.

LSEG -- FTSE 250

Used for: FTSE 250

EODHD -- UK housebuilder composite (daily EOD)

Equal-weighted composite of Persimmon, Barratt Redrow, Taylor Wimpey, Berkeley, Vistry via EODHD EOD API. Rebased to 100 at 2019 average. Free tier: 20 req/day (5 per fetch). Falls back to editorial fixture when API key is unset.

Used for: UK housebuilder composite

US EIA -- Europe Brent Spot Price (FOB)

Endpointhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/RBRTEd.xls

EIA Open Data API requires a registration key; the canonical daily series is also available as XLS which is not parseable from a Cloudflare Worker. Fixture-backed, refreshed weekly from the public HTML table. Licence: EIA data is U.S. public domain.

Used for: Brent crude in GBP

S&P Global -- UK Services PMI

Headline Services PMI index. Press releases are public; the underlying series is licensed to S&P Global. We mirror only the monthly headline figure -- fair-dealing summary use.

Used for: S&P Global UK Services PMI

GfK / NIESR -- Consumer Confidence Barometer

Transferred from GfK to NIESR in 2025. Headline index published monthly as a press release; sub-indices are subscription-gated. Fixture-backed, headline-only.

Used for: GfK consumer confidence

RICS -- UK Residential Market Survey

Monthly residential survey. Headline balances in each month's press release are public; the full back-set is subscription-gated. Fixture-backed with the headline net price balance.

Used for: RICS house-price balance

Office for Budget Responsibility -- Economic & Fiscal Outlook

Used for: Current-budget headroom (forecast)PSNFL trajectory deviation (forecast)

ONS -- Public Sector Finances

Used for: Public-sector net borrowingCentral-government net interest payable

UK Debt Management Office -- gilts in issue

Endpointhttps://www.dmo.gov.uk/data/XmlDataReport?reportCode=D1A

Flat XML list of every outstanding gilt at the most recent close-of-business date (instrument type, maturity bracket, nominal + inflation-uplifted amount). Refreshes once per working day. Methodology note: `issuance_long_share` was originally a flow-based measure (planned annual issuance share); it is now stock-based (Long / Ultra-Long share of outstanding conventional gilt stock) because the flow report (D2.1E) is behind a ShieldSquare bot-check. The stock share captures the same structural signal without intra-year seasonality. The D1A feed exposes only today's snapshot, so both DMO indicators are excluded from historical backfill quorum; see the live-only disclosure on /methodology.

Used for: Index-linked gilt share of stockLong-dated share of conventional gilt stock

ONS -- Labour Market Statistics

Used for: Economic inactivity rate, 16-64Health-related inactivity (m)Unemployment rate, 16+Vacancies per unemployed personReal regular pay growth, YoY

ONS -- Real-Time Indicators

Used for: AWE regular pay indexDirect-debit failure rate

Moneyfacts -- UK Mortgage Rates

Contextual reference only.

MHCLG / DLUHC -- Housing Statistics

Used for: Net housing additions vs. trajectoryPlanning consents vs. baseline

gov.uk -- Announcements RSS

Used for: New towns milestones hitSMR fleet progress

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

Used for: BICS rollout vs. target

Department for Business and Trade

Used for: Industrial Strategy milestones

Institute for Fiscal Studies

Contextual reference only.

Resolution Foundation

Contextual reference only.

Institute for Government

Contextual reference only.

Secondary references & further reading

These organisations publish analyses that inform the methodology, the editorial notes, and the timeline, but their outputs are not used as primary data inputs.

Institute for Fiscal Studies — Green Budget, headroom analysis, tax-and-spend commentary.
Resolution Foundation — living standards, labour market, household data.
Institute for Government — delivery analysis, machinery-of-government context.

Licensing & attribution

Source data on this site is reproduced under the licences below. The application code is MIT-licensed; the source code is on GitHub.

UK government data — Bank of England, Office for Budget Responsibility, Office for National Statistics, Debt Management Office, MHCLG, DESNZ, gov.uk, parliament.uk, legislation.gov.uk: Contains public-sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
S&P Global UK Services PMI — © S&P Global. Indicator values are reproduced as headline figures under fair-dealing for non-commercial dashboarding; underlying detail and historical series remain S&P Global property.
EIA Brent Spot — US Energy Information Administration, public-domain.
EODHD UK housebuilder composite — © EOD Historical Data; reproduced under our subscriber agreement, EOD daily figures only.
Moneyfacts mortgage rates — © Moneyfacts; aggregate market averages reproduced with attribution; underlying scraping respects robots.txt.
RICS Residential Market Survey — © RICS; net-balance figures only, reproduced with attribution under fair-dealing for analysis.
GfK / NIESR Consumer Confidence Barometer — © NIESR (publisher since 2024); headline index reproduced with attribution.