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Provenance

Sources

Every figure on this site traces to a public, free-to-access primary source. We do not use paywalled publications as primary evidence. Where a feed is scraped rather than pulled from a stable API, we publish the endpoint and the parse script for review.

Bank of England -- Statistical Database (gilt yields)

Homepage ↗
Endpointhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/fromshowcolumns.asp
Used for: 10-year gilt yield30-year gilt yield5y breakeven inflation10y breakeven inflation10y real (IL) gilt yield

Bank of England -- Exchange rates

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Used for: GBP / USDGBP trade-weighted index

Bank of England -- SONIA

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Used for: SONIA 12-month forward

ICE -- UK Natural Gas Futures

Homepage ↗
Used for: UK natural gas front-month

LSEG -- UK listed housebuilders (composite)

Homepage ↗

Equal-weighted composite of Persimmon, Barratt Redrow, Taylor Wimpey, Berkeley, Vistry. No free daily bulk feed; data editorially curated from public last-close quotes. Licence: individual issuer closing prices are public domain; the composite calculation is ours.

Used for: UK housebuilder composite

US EIA -- Europe Brent Spot Price (FOB)

Homepage ↗
Endpointhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/RBRTEd.xls

EIA Open Data API requires a registration key; the canonical daily series is also available as XLS which is not parseable from a Cloudflare Worker. Fixture-backed, refreshed weekly from the public HTML table. Licence: EIA data is U.S. public domain.

Used for: Brent crude in GBP

S&P Global -- UK Services PMI

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Headline Services PMI index. Press releases are public; the underlying series is licensed to S&P Global. We mirror only the monthly headline figure -- fair-dealing summary use.

Used for: S&P Global UK Services PMI

GfK / NIESR -- Consumer Confidence Barometer

Homepage ↗

Transferred from GfK to NIESR in 2025. Headline index published monthly as a press release; sub-indices are subscription-gated. Fixture-backed, headline-only.

Used for: GfK consumer confidence

RICS -- UK Residential Market Survey

Homepage ↗

Monthly residential survey. Headline balances in each month's press release are public; the full back-set is subscription-gated. Fixture-backed with the headline net price balance.

Used for: RICS house-price balance

Office for Budget Responsibility -- Economic & Fiscal Outlook

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Used for: Current-budget headroomPSNFL trajectory deviation

ONS -- Public Sector Finances

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Used for: Borrowing outturn vs. OBR pathDebt interest vs. forecast

UK Debt Management Office

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Used for: Index-linked gilt share of stockLong-conventional issuance share

ONS -- Labour Market Statistics

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Used for: Economic inactivity rate, 16-64Health-related inactivity (m)Unemployment rate, 16+Vacancies per unemployed personReal regular pay growth, YoY

ONS -- Real-Time Indicators

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Used for: PAYE payroll employees (MoM)Direct-debit failure rate

Moneyfacts -- UK Mortgage Rates

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Used for: Average 2y fixed mortgage rate

MHCLG / DLUHC -- Housing Statistics

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Used for: Net housing additions vs. trajectoryPlanning consents vs. baseline

gov.uk -- Announcements RSS

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Used for: New towns milestones hitSMR fleet progress

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero

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Used for: BICS firms onboarded

Department for Business and Trade

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Used for: Industrial Strategy milestones

Institute for Fiscal Studies

Homepage ↗

Contextual reference only.

Resolution Foundation

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Contextual reference only.

Institute for Government

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Contextual reference only.

Secondary references & further reading

These organisations publish analyses that inform the methodology, the editorial notes, and the timeline, but their outputs are not used as primary data inputs.