Scenario simulator · 14 levers · live ECDF methodology

what if…?

Move the sliders to see what the headline score would read if these values had been observed today. Each lever is a real headline driver, scored through the same empirical-CDF baseline the live score uses. This is a counterfactual recomputation, not a forecast. Share your scenario with the link at the bottom.

The current snapshot, untouched. Move any slider to start exploring.

Drivers — by pillar

Market Stability 5 levers · weight 40%
  • 4.86%
    0.50% — 6.50% ECDF
  • 5.55%
    1.50% — 7.00% ECDF
  • 0.75%
    1.00% — 6.00% ECDF
  • GBP 76.5/bbl
    GBP 30.0/bbl — GBP 150.0/bbl ECDF
  • 50.5
    35.0 — 65.0 ECDF
Fiscal Room 3 levers · weight 30%
  • GBP 23.6bn
    GBP 0.0bn — GBP 50.0bn ECDF
  • +0.00pp
    -3.00pp — +5.00pp ECDF
  • GBP 24.3bn
    GBP 0.0bn — GBP 50.0bn ECDF
Labour & Living-Standards Resilience 4 levers · weight 20%
  • 0.8%
    -3.0% — 5.0% ECDF
  • 2.78m
    1.80m — 3.50m ECDF
  • 5.0%
    2.5% — 9.0% ECDF
  • 5.14%
    1.50% — 8.00% ECDF
Growth Delivery 2 levers · weight 10%
  • 49.0%
    30.0% — 110.0% ECDF
  • 62.6%
    30.0% — 130.0% ECDF

Every lever is normalised through the live empirical CDF over the 2019–present baseline (excluding the 2020 COVID outlier window). Untouched indicators stay at their live values; the headline still uses the production weighted-geometric-mean aggregation. Read the full methodology →

Scenario score

40/100
Strained Wire wobbling
· Matches live
  • Market 28 matches live weight 40%
  • Fiscal 50 matches live weight 30%
  • Labour 57 matches live weight 20%
  • Delivery 41 matches live weight 10%
Biggest drag: Market Stability

Methodology footer · Full methodology

How it works. The headline score is recomputed in your browser using the same weighted-geometric-mean aggregation as the live homepage. Each slider is normalised through the same empirical-CDF baseline the production score uses (where available). Other indicators in the same pillar stay at their live values, so a single lever's effect is bounded by its in-pillar weight. Untouched pillars are returned verbatim from the live snapshot. The 1d/30d/YTD deltas reset to zero once you move a slider — they compare to live history, which a hypothetical scenario isn't.