Market Stability
27 Acute
- 7d ▼ -1.1 worse
- 30d ▼ -4.2 worse
Driven by 10-year gilt yieldUK 10-year nominal zero-coupon gilt yield (BoE IUDMNZC, daily close).: 5.01%.
Long view
last 30 days
Headline Tightrope Score over the selected range, annotated with the events that moved it. Below, the four pillars name their dominant indicators today.
Geopolitical 8 Jul 2026
Renewed US–Iran tensions push gilts to a four-week high
Fresh US strikes and a declaration that the ceasefire is over send crude to two-week highs and reignite imported-inflation fears. The 10-…
Political 8 Jul 2026
Nigel Farage resigns his Commons seat via the Manor of Northstead
The Chancellor of the Exchequer appoints Nigel Paul Farage as Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead — the procedural mechanism b…
Political 22 Jun 2026
Prime Minister announces resignation; gilts and sterling wobble, then steady
Keir Starmer announces he will resign as Labour leader and Prime Minister once a leadership election concludes, following the May local-e…
Fiscal 19 Jun 2026
May borrowing overshoots the OBR profile at £23.3bn
Public sector net borrowing comes in at £23.3 billion for May — £5.6 billion above the OBR's monthly profile, driven by higher-than-antic…
Source: Office for National Statistics ↗
Political 18 Jun 2026
Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, defeating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon and returning to the Commons; …
Source: House of Commons Library ↗
Monetary 18 Jun 2026
Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%
The Monetary Policy Committee votes 7–2 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with two members preferring a quarter-point rise. CPI inflation has e…
Source: Bank of England ↗
Drivers
key drivers, by pillar
Each card names the indicator currently doing the heaviest lifting inside its pillar.
Fiscal Room
51 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▼ -0.2 worse
Driven by Current-budget headroom (forecast)OBR forecast: surplus against the stability rule at the FY 2029/30 target year. Updated on each OBR EFO (twice-yearly).: GBP 23.6bn.
Labour & Living-Standards Resilience
53 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▼ -9.6 worse
Driven by Health-related inactivity (m)Millions reporting long-term sickness as main reason for inactivity.: 2.78m.
Growth Delivery
40 Acute
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▲ +12.2 better
Driven by Planning consents vs. baselineQuarterly residential planning-decisions-granted as a % of a self-declared estimated 2019 pre-COVID quarterly baseline of 11,500. The denominator is an estimate — archived MHCLG PDFs can tighten it; the caveat is intentional and surfaced here.: 58.3%.