Market Stability
28 Acute
- 7d ▼ -0.6 worse
- 30d ▼ -9.0 worse
Driven by 10-year gilt yieldUK 10-year nominal zero-coupon gilt yield (BoE IUDMNZC, daily close).: 5.42%.
Long view
last year
Headline Tightrope Score over the selected range, annotated with the events that moved it. Below, the four pillars name their dominant indicators today.
Market 6 Oct 2026
September house-price balance falls to -32%
The RICS UK Residential Market Survey headline net balance of surveyors reporting rising rather than falling house prices is -32% in Sept…
Market 5 Oct 2026
September services PMI eases to 52.1
The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index final print for September is 52.1, down from 52.5 in August and above the flash es…
Market 25 Sep 2026
GfK consumer confidence rises to -13 for a third month
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index is -13 in September, up one point from -14 in August. It is the third consecutive monthly increase, the…
Fiscal 22 Sep 2026
August borrowing prints at £18.3bn
Public sector net borrowing is £18.3 billion in August 2026, £2.9 billion more than a year earlier and £3.5 billion above the OBR monthly…
Monetary 17 Sep 2026
Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% and sets a multi-year gilt unwind
The Monetary Policy Committee votes 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members preferring a rise to 4%. On energy prices as o…
Fiscal 16 Sep 2026
August CPI rises to 3.1% on motor fuels
Headline CPI inflation is 3.1% in the year to August, up from 2.9% in July. CPIH is 3.3%, up from 3.1%. Transport, particularly motor fue…
Policy 15 Sep 2026
Unemployment holds at 4.9% as payrolls slip
The ILO unemployment rate is 4.9% in May to July 2026, largely unchanged on the quarter and up 0.2 percentage points on the year. The 16–…
Market 3 Sep 2026
August services PMI rises to a four-month high of 52.5
The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index final print for August is 52.5, up from 52.1 in July and the highest in four month…
Fiscal 21 Aug 2026
July borrowing prints at £1.8bn
Public sector net borrowing is £1.8 billion in July 2026, £0.7 billion more than a year earlier and £2.3 billion above the OBR's monthly …
Fiscal 19 Aug 2026
July CPI rises to 2.9% as the energy-price cap steps up
Headline CPI inflation is 2.9% in the year to July, up from 2.6% in June. ONS attributes the pickup to a sharp rise in gas prices followi…
Market 5 Aug 2026
UK services PMI returns to expansion at 52.1
The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index final print for July is 52.1, revised up from a 51.8 flash and recovering from 48.…
Monetary 30 Jul 2026
Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%, vote splits 6–3
The Monetary Policy Committee votes 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members preferring a quarter-point rise to 4%. The acc…
Source: Bank of England, July 2026 MPC ↗
Market 23 Jul 2026
GfK consumer confidence jumps six points to -17
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index rises to -17 in July from -23 in June, the largest monthly gain since November 2023. The survey ran 1-1…
Political 20 Jul 2026
Andy Burnham appointed Prime Minister
Andy Burnham is invited by King Charles III to form a government, succeeding Keir Starmer, after an unopposed Labour leadership election …
Geopolitical 8 Jul 2026
Renewed US–Iran tensions push gilts to a four-week high
Fresh US strikes and a declaration that the ceasefire is over send crude to two-week highs and reignite imported-inflation fears. The 10-…
Political 8 Jul 2026
Nigel Farage resigns his Commons seat via the Manor of Northstead
The Chancellor of the Exchequer appoints Nigel Paul Farage as Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead — the procedural mechanism b…
Political 22 Jun 2026
Prime Minister announces resignation; gilts and sterling wobble, then steady
Keir Starmer announces he will resign as Labour leader and Prime Minister once a leadership election concludes, following the May local-e…
Fiscal 19 Jun 2026
May borrowing overshoots the OBR profile at £23.3bn
Public sector net borrowing comes in at £23.3 billion for May — £5.6 billion above the OBR's monthly profile, driven by higher-than-antic…
Source: Office for National Statistics ↗
Political 18 Jun 2026
Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, defeating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon and returning to the Commons; …
Source: House of Commons Library ↗
Monetary 18 Jun 2026
Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75%
The Monetary Policy Committee votes 7–2 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with two members preferring a quarter-point rise. CPI inflation has e…
Source: Bank of England ↗
Market 22 May 2026
Gilt yields post biggest weekly drop since 2023
Gilt yields fall the most in a week since late 2023 as the pressures of mid-May unwind together: Andy Burnham commits to the government's…
Source: CNBC (contemporaneous report) ↗
Market 15 May 2026
10-year gilt yield peaks at 5.14%, highest since 2008
The 10-year gilt yield peaks at 5.137%, its highest since July 2008, with the 30-year touching 5.86% — territory last seen in 1998. The s…
Source: Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) ↗
Political 7 May 2026
Local elections: historic Labour losses as Reform UK takes 12 councils
English local elections across 136 authorities deliver the largest gain by any party outside the big two in local-election history: Refor…
Source: Rallings & Thrasher / LGC ↗
Geopolitical 29 Apr 2026
Oil tops $118 as Hormuz blockade escalates
Brent crude rises for an eighth straight day to top $118 a barrel after the US President pledges to blockade Iran until it agrees a nucle…
Source: CNBC (contemporaneous report) ↗
Fiscal 22 Apr 2026
March CPI rises to 3.3%, BoE path under scrutiny
ONS releases March 2026 CPI inflation data showing headline CPI at 3.3% YoY (up from ~3.0% in February), driven by lingering energy and p…
Source: ONS Consumer price inflation ↗
Fiscal 21 Apr 2026
Resolution Foundation: conflict could erase £16bn of headroom
Resolution Foundation warns that a prolonged or severe Middle East conflict could erase up to £16bn of the Chancellor's current-budget he…
Source: Resolution Foundation ↗
Market 17 Apr 2026
Sterling recovers to pre-war levels
GBP/USD back near 1.2400 as the Iran ceasefire holds and Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises. Oil and UK gas sell off sharply. BoE offic…
Source: Reuters, Bank of England ↗
Fiscal 16 Apr 2026
Reeves rules out tax rises or borrowing for extra defence spending
Chancellor tells reporters additional defence outlays up to the 3.5% commitment will not be funded by more borrowing or higher taxes, poi…
Source: Reuters, HM Treasury ↗
Geopolitical 8 Apr 2026
US, Israel and Iran agree conditional ceasefire
US, Israel and Iran agree a conditional two-week ceasefire; UK Foreign Secretary and international finance ministers welcome the de-escal…
Source: Foreign Office / gov.uk ↗
Fiscal 3 Mar 2026
OBR Spring Forecast: headroom 23.6bn, GDP cut to 1.1%
Current-budget headroom ticks up from 22.0bn at the November Budget. 2026 growth downgraded from 1.4%. IMF subsequently cuts to 0.8% citi…
Source: OBR, IMF ↗
Geopolitical 28 Feb 2026
Iran conflict begins, energy shock lands
UK natural gas front-month jumps 38% inside a week. 30y gilts break 5.5% for the first time since 1998. Tightrope Score moves from 51 to …
Source: ICE, Bank of England ↗
Monetary 12 Feb 2026
BoE cuts Bank Rate to 3.75%
7-2 vote. MPC minutes emphasise inflation persistence; markets trim the 2026 cut path.
Source: Bank of England MPC ↗
Delivery 18 Dec 2025
Planning & Infrastructure Bill receives Royal Assent
Landmark reform of the planning system passes both houses with cross-bench support; commencement orders expected by late spring.
Fiscal 26 Nov 2025
Autumn Budget: 22.0bn headroom restored
Combination of receipts upgrade and tighter departmental envelope rebuilds the cushion after the March 2025 crunch (9.9bn).
Source: HM Treasury, OBR ↗
Drivers
key drivers, by pillar
Each card names the indicator currently doing the heaviest lifting inside its pillar.
Fiscal Room
60 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▲ +8.6 better
Driven by Current-budget headroom (forecast)OBR forecast: surplus against the stability rule at the FY 2029/30 target year. Updated on each OBR EFO (twice-yearly).: GBP 23.6bn.
Labour & Living-Standards Resilience
51 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▼ -10.1 worse
Driven by Effective 2y fix mortgage rateBoE IADB IUMBV34: monthly effective rate on new fixed-rate 2-year mortgages to households at 75% LTV. The canonical economist's reference (interest income ÷ balance, not advertised front-book rate).: 5.13%.
Growth Delivery
34 Acute
- 7d ▼ -6.3 worse
- 30d ▼ -10.4 worse
Driven by Planning consents vs. baselineQuarterly residential planning-decisions-granted as a % of a self-declared estimated 2019 pre-COVID quarterly baseline of 11,500. The denominator is an estimate — archived MHCLG PDFs can tighten it; the caveat is intentional and surfaced here.: 60.0%.