Market Stability
28 Acute
- 7d ▲ +0.2 better
- 30d ▼ -4.5 worse
Driven by 10-year gilt yieldUK 10-year nominal zero-coupon gilt yield (BoE IUDMNZC, daily close).: 4.86%.
Long view
all available history
Headline Tightrope Score over the selected range, annotated with the events that moved it. Below, the four pillars name their dominant indicators today.
Fiscal 22 Apr 2026
March CPI rises to 3.3%, BoE path under scrutiny
ONS releases March 2026 CPI inflation data showing headline CPI at 3.3% YoY (up from ~3.0% in February), driven by lingering energy and p…
Source: ONS Consumer price inflation ↗
Fiscal 21 Apr 2026
Resolution Foundation: conflict could erase £16bn of headroom
Resolution Foundation warns that a prolonged or severe Middle East conflict could erase up to £16bn of the Chancellor's current-budget he…
Source: Resolution Foundation ↗
Market 17 Apr 2026
Sterling recovers to pre-war levels
GBP/USD back near 1.2400 as the Iran ceasefire holds and Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises. Oil and UK gas sell off sharply. BoE offic…
Source: Reuters, Bank of England ↗
Fiscal 16 Apr 2026
Reeves rules out tax rises or borrowing for extra defence spending
Chancellor tells reporters additional defence outlays up to the 3.5% commitment will not be funded by more borrowing or higher taxes, poi…
Source: Reuters, HM Treasury ↗
Geopolitical 8 Apr 2026
US, Israel and Iran agree conditional ceasefire
US, Israel and Iran agree a conditional two-week ceasefire; UK Foreign Secretary and international finance ministers welcome the de-escal…
Source: Foreign Office / gov.uk ↗
Fiscal 3 Mar 2026
OBR Spring Forecast: headroom 23.6bn, GDP cut to 1.1%
Current-budget headroom ticks up from 22.0bn at the November Budget. 2026 growth downgraded from 1.4%. IMF subsequently cuts to 0.8% citi…
Source: OBR, IMF ↗
Geopolitical 28 Feb 2026
Iran conflict begins, energy shock lands
UK natural gas front-month jumps 38% inside a week. 30y gilts break 5.5% for the first time since 1998. Tightrope Score moves from 51 to …
Source: ICE, Bank of England ↗
Monetary 12 Feb 2026
BoE cuts Bank Rate to 3.75%
7-2 vote. MPC minutes emphasise inflation persistence; markets trim the 2026 cut path.
Source: Bank of England MPC ↗
Delivery 18 Dec 2025
Planning & Infrastructure Bill receives Royal Assent
Landmark reform of the planning system passes both houses with cross-bench support; commencement orders expected by late spring.
Fiscal 26 Nov 2025
Autumn Budget: 22.0bn headroom restored
Combination of receipts upgrade and tighter departmental envelope rebuilds the cushion after the March 2025 crunch (9.9bn).
Source: HM Treasury, OBR ↗
Monetary 18 Sep 2025
BoE holds Bank Rate at 4.00%, starts reducing gilt sales
QT pace pared back; MPC cites technical market conditions rather than policy loosening.
Source: Bank of England MPC ↗
Policy 10 Jun 2025
Industrial Strategy white paper published
Sets out eight priority sectors and the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme framework.
Source: DBT ↗
Fiscal 26 Mar 2025
OBR Spring Forecast: headroom collapses to 9.9bn
The crunch. Gilts reprice and the Chancellor promises restoration in the next fiscal event.
Source: OBR ↗
Drivers
key drivers, by pillar
Each card names the indicator currently doing the heaviest lifting inside its pillar.
Fiscal Room
50 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d ▼ -0.1 worse
Driven by Current-budget headroom (forecast)OBR forecast: surplus against the stability rule at the FY 2029/30 target year. Updated on each OBR EFO (twice-yearly).: GBP 23.6bn.
Labour & Living-Standards Resilience
57 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d — 0.0
Driven by Economic inactivity rate, 16-64Share of 16-64 population neither in work nor looking for work.: 20.9%.
Growth Delivery
41 Strained
- 7d — 0.0
- 30d — 0.0
Driven by Planning consents vs. baselineQuarterly residential planning-decisions-granted as a % of a self-declared estimated 2019 pre-COVID quarterly baseline of 11,500. The denominator is an estimate — archived MHCLG PDFs can tighten it; the caveat is intentional and surfaced here.: 62.6%.